Development and dissemination of infectious disease dynamic transmission models during the COVID-19 pandemic: what can we learn from other pathogens and how can we move forward?

The current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the unprecedented development and integration of infectious disease dynamic transmission models into policy making and public health practice. Models offer a systematic way to investigate transmission dynamics and produce short-term and long-term predictions that explicitly integrate assumptions about biological, behavioural, and epidemiological processes that affect disease transmission, burden, and surveillance. Models have been valuable tools during the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks, able to generate possible trajectories of disease burden, evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies, and estimate key transmission variables. Particularly given the rapid pace of model development, evaluation, and integration with decision making in emergency situations, it is necessary to understand the benefits and pitfalls of transmission models. We review and highlight key aspects of the history of infectious disease dynamic models, the role of rigorous testing and evaluation, the integration with data, and the successful application of models to guide public health. Rather than being an expansive history of infectious disease models, this Review focuses on how the integration of modelling can continue to be advanced through policy and practice in appropriate and conscientious ways to support the current pandemic response.

Estimating transportation role in pandemic diffusion in Nigeria: A consideration of 1918-19 influenza and COVID-19 pandemics.

BACKGROUND: The focus of the study is to assess the role of different transport means in the importation and diffusion of 1918-19 influenza and a novel 2019 corona virus designated as COVID-19 in Nigeria. METHODS: The study provides a review of the means by which the two pandemics were imported into the country and the roles the transport means of each period played in the local spread of the epidemics. RESULTS: The study notes that seaports and railways, being the emerging transportation modes in the country were significant to the importation and local diffusion of 1918-19 influenza, respectively, while air transport is significant to the importation of the current COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The study concludes that increasing preference for the transport at a given epoch is significant to the diffusion of prevailing epidemic in the epoch.

[Scared to death? Retrospective at the time of COVID-19]. / Mourir de peur ? Rétrospective au temps du COVID-19.

TITLE: Mourir de peur ? Rétrospective au temps du COVID-19. ABSTRACT: Un proverbe allemand du XIVe siècle disait que la peste s'attaque à ceux qui ont le plus peur. Est-ce la peur du virus qui tue ou le virus ? Des observateurs étrangers1 s'étonnent que le confinement jusqu'ici ait été dans l'ensemble respecté en France sans révoltes véritables. Les héritiers de la Révolution française ont admis une restriction sans précédent de leurs libertés et se sont soumis à la décision du confinement. La peur du virus inconnu, invisible et sournois, qui a frappé la population, mais aussi la peur de l'autorité et des contrôles, celle de l'Autre et celle de l'étranger possibles porteurs, sont probablement pour beaucoup dans cette résignation. Mais cette peur n'est-elle pas en soi délétère, comme semble nous le montrer une rétrospective sur les épidémies passées ?